I used to think production lead times were all about the factory’s efficiency—until I ran into Tet delays and monsoon disruptions that no one warned me about.
Vietnamese metal parts factories experience predictable seasonal fluctuations due to holiday shutdowns, climate, and global demand. Understanding these patterns helps you plan smarter and avoid serious delays.
If you’ve ever placed an order right before Vietnam’s Lunar New Year, you know what a mistake that can be. The best delivery planning begins with knowing when not to order.
Which periods in Vietnam see factory shutdowns or slowdowns (e.g., Tết Lunar New Year)?
Vietnam’s Lunar New Year, or Tết, causes a nationwide manufacturing slowdown between mid-January and mid-February.
In 2025, Tet falls on January 29–30, but many factories shut down two weeks before and restart slowly weeks after.
Government data on public holidays in Vietnam 1 and export statistics from Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade 2 confirm the recurring Tet-season shutdown impact.
If your order is not placed by early December, your production will likely get pushed to late February or March. Communication slows down, shipping queues form, and even when production resumes, post-holiday worker turnover often reduces efficiency for several weeks.
Industry analyses like how Tet affects factory production 3 show the same pattern across most export manufacturers.
Tet Impact Timeline
| Phase | Typical Period | What Happens |
|---|---|---|
| Order Rush | Nov 25 – Dec 20 | Factories accept last orders before Tet cut-off |
| Production Freeze | Jan 10 – Feb 10 | Full/partial shutdowns; no output or shipment |
| Restart & Recovery | Feb 11 – Mar 1 | Limited capacity; high backlog; low workforce |
For critical projects, I now avoid placing orders from late November to early February—unless I build in an 8–10 week buffer and prepare for slow responses.
What months tend to be high volume export months and why?
September through November is peak export season for Vietnamese metal parts factories.
Global demand spikes ahead of the Western holiday season, and Vietnamese suppliers ramp up capacity to meet it.
According to Vietnam Customs export data 4 and the World Bank’s Vietnam economic update 5, Q4 consistently shows the highest export volumes.
Why Q4 is peak season:
- Holiday restocking by U.S. and European buyers.
- Cooler weather improves worker availability and transport conditions.
- Fewer disruptions: Monsoon season ends, Tet hasn’t begun.
I usually target September delivery for large orders. It hits the sweet spot—full capacity, fast responses, fewer disruptions.
This aligns with Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI trends 6, which peak between September and November.
Monthly Export Volume Pattern (Typical)
| Month | Export Volume | Production Capacity | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | Low | Low (post-Tet) | High (shutdown risk) |
| February | Low | Low | High (slow restart) |
| March–April | Medium | Rebuilding | Moderate |
| May–July | Low–Medium | Average | Moderate (monsoons) |
| August | Medium | Increasing | Moderate (backlogs) |
| September | High | Full | Low |
| October | High | Full | Low |
| November | High | Full | Low |
| December | Medium–High | Medium (capacity tight) | High (pre-Tet rush) |
Tip:
Place orders in June–July to secure September production slots before Q4 fills up.
More insights can be found in Vietnam logistics and shipping calendars 7.
How should you plan lead-times to avoid off-season delays or capacity crunches?
To avoid delays, align your purchasing calendar with Vietnam’s production rhythm—by factoring in Tet, monsoon disruptions, and Q4 pressure.
You can adjust forecasts using seasonal demand planning methods 8 to balance workload and minimize risk.
Lead time planning by season:
| Month | Season | Typical Lead Time | Key Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Feb | Off-season | 60–90 days | Tet shutdown, poor communication, post-holiday slowdowns |
| Mar–Apr | Recovery | 35–50 days | Backlogs from Tet, ramp-up delays |
| May–Aug | Off-season | 45–65 days | Monsoons, slow exports, logistics disruptions |
| Sep–Nov | Peak season | 30–45 days | High demand, optimal conditions |
| Dec (early) | Peak-lite | 35–50 days | Factory rush, looming Tet shutdown |
| Dec (late) | Pre-Tet strain | 60–75 days | Capacity closing, Tet prep begins |
Experienced buyers also monitor climate and logistics data from the Vietnam Meteorological Service 9 to anticipate monsoon-related shipping risks.
How can you use contractual planning (order timing, advance booking) to mitigate seasonal risk?
You can mitigate seasonal production risks through contractual clauses that lock in timelines, define buffer days, and penalize delays.
Add clauses recommended in international sourcing contracts 10 to define delivery responsibility and avoid ambiguity.
Contractual Planning Checklist
| Strategy | Purpose | Contract Tip |
|---|---|---|
| Production Window Lock-In | Reserve factory time in advance | "Production must begin between X–Y date range." |
| Early Order Bonuses | Motivate you to place early orders | "If PO is issued before [date], unit price discount 2%." |
| Delay Penalty Clause | Compensate late shipments | "1% penalty per 7-day delay, max 5% of PO value." |
| Blackout Period Declaration | Avoid miscommunication during shutdowns | "Factory closed Jan 15–Feb 15; no output or response due." |
| Milestone-Based Payments | Align payment with delivery risk | "30% deposit, 40% after inspection, 30% after shipment." |
This approach helped me get one urgent order out on January 10—just days before Tet hit. The factory prioritized it because the contract clearly outlined financial penalties for any spillover.
Conclusion
Peak and off-season planning is not optional when sourcing custom metal parts from Vietnam. Once you start planning around Tet and Q4 demand, lead times shorten, delays disappear, and deliveries stay on track.
Footnotes
1. Overview of official Vietnamese public holidays. ↩︎
2. Ministry data on national industry and trade calendar. ↩︎
3. Explanation of Tet holiday impact on factory schedules. ↩︎
4. Customs export data showing monthly shipment trends. ↩︎
5. World Bank report on Vietnam’s seasonal economic cycles. ↩︎
6. Manufacturing PMI data highlighting Q4 performance peaks. ↩︎
7. Guide to Vietnam’s logistics and shipping seasons. ↩︎
8. Guide to seasonal demand forecasting for production planning. ↩︎
9. Meteorological service providing climate risk data for logistics. ↩︎
10. ICC resource explaining Incoterms and international trade clauses. ↩︎
